Facing Your Budgeting Fears and Taking Control of Your Finances
Filed under: Video, Family Money, Personal Finance
In the midst of a divorce, a mom of five faces a financial horror story: $40,000 in credit card debt, a huge mortgage payment and minimal college savings — and she has no idea how to budget. DailyFinance’s Laura Rowley offers a few ways she can begin her escape from the financial twilight zone.
A Switch List: Items to Remember When You Change Banks
Filed under: Banking, Family Money, Personal Finance
If you decide to switch banks to avoid fees, here’s a list of handy reminders to make the transition smooth and complete, courtesy of NetBanker, an online finance and banking website:
o. Register for online banking at the new financial institution and reset your preferences and security settings.
o. Find convenient and free ATMs that support your new financial institution.
o. Contact the merchants, insurance companies and financial institutions who use preauthorized debit to grab money from you each month, and switch them to the new checking account. (Keep this list and verify that they have done it in the time period they promised.)
o. Contact your HR department to switch payroll direct deposit to the new account
o. In your old bank’s online banking, write down biller and payee contact info and capture any history you want to record. Enter the biller info into your new account.
o. If you used e-statements, download and save all prior statements on your computer.
o. Keep the old account open until online bill payment is up and running at the new account. Then re-enter those upcoming payments into the new online billpay (double checking that they will be processed before the due dates so you won’t incur late fees.) Then cancel all the pending payments in the old account.
o. If you have a car loan or mortgage at the old financial institution that offered a discounted rate for automatic payments from their checking account, you may want to keep the old account open with enough cash in it each month, until those loans are paid off.
o. Establish email and mobile alerts at the new financial institution.
Food and Gas Cost More in September
Filed under: Economy, Family Money
By CHRISTOPHER S. RUGABERAP
WASHINGTON — Consumers paid more for food and gas last month, although inflation outside those volatile categories was tame.
The Labor Department says the Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% in September, below a 0.4% rise in August. Excluding food and energy, so-called core prices increased 0.1%, the smallest rise since March.
Inflation has worsened this year, after the cost of oil, grains and other commodities spiked in the spring. But economists expect price increases to moderate in the coming months as weak growth lowers commodity prices.
A small amount of inflation is good for the economy. It encourages businesses and consumers to spend and invest money sooner rather than later, before inflation erodes its value.
Still, Americans are facing higher food and gas prices at a difficult time. Unemployment has been roughly 9% for more than two years. Hiring is slow and few people are seeing much in the way of raises. Steeper prices for basic necessities have forced many to cut back on more discretionary purchases. That has slowed overall growth.
Food prices rose 0.4% in September, pushed up by big increases in the dairy, cereals, and fruits and vegetables categories. Gas prices rose 2.9%.
Dairy prices have jumped 10.2% in the past year. Gas prices have soared 33.3%.
Those increases are key reasons overall inflation has jumped 3.9% in the 12 months ending in September, the largest year-over-year increase in three years. Core prices have increased 2% for the same period.
At the same time, inflation-adjusted average hourly earnings fell 0.1% in September, the Labor Department said Wednesday. In the past year, average inflation-adjusted hourly earnings have dropped 1.9%.
The annual increase in consumer prices means that 55 million Social Security beneficiaries will receive higher benefits next year. They will get a 3.6% cost-of-living increase, the first since 2009. Inflation has been so low in the past two years that Social Security checks, which are tied to the CPI, haven’t changed.
The core index has reached the top of the Federal Reserve’s informal inflation target of between 1.5% and 2%. But Fed policymakers also expect inflation to moderate in the coming months. Last month, Fed officials said that inflation would decline to levels “at or below” the target, according to minutes released last week.
On a brighter note, prices for other goods have fallen or flattened. Clothing prices plummeted 1.1% last month, their steepest drop in 13 years. That comes after four months of sharp increases. Used car prices fell, while new car prices were unchanged for the third straight month.
Rental costs, which have been pushing up the core price index in recent months, rose but at a slower pace than previous months.
A surge in gas prices drove wholesale costs up 0.8% in September, the government said Tuesday. Economists cautioned that the increase largely reflected one-time factors and broader inflation is likely to be modest.
Core wholesale prices rose only 0.2%.
For Tech Deals, Wait ‘Till Black Friday
Filed under: Technology, Apple, Wal-Mart Stores, Amazon.com, Retail, Barnes & Noble, Best Buy, Family Money
‘Tis the season to buy tech products — almost. If you’re looking to upgrade, it’s probably best to wait till Black Friday.
As we saw with Walmart’s (WMT) blockbuster $200 laptop last year, tech products like computers, phones, TVs and tablets will see sharp discounts for the holidays. Expect to see more deals on computers at the $200 range this year, says Brad Wilson, CEO of Bradsdeals.com, a coupon web site that monitors retailers’ promotional strategies year round.
Wilson says that prices on most tech products will get haircuts: High-end smarthpones with HD video recording, fast processors and high-quality camera phones for as little as $125 (with a two-year contract) from retailers like Walmart, Amazon.com (AMZN) and Best Buy (BBY). “That’s pretty remarkable. Typically high end phones are $200 or more,” he says.
Also on the chopping block: TVs prices. Retailers will be selling 32-inch flat-screen HDTVs for $200, compared to almost $300 today, Wilson says. Blu-Ray players will see price drops, as well.
Probably, the sharpest cuts will be to tablet computers — though not to Apple’s (AAPL) blockbuster iPad. The new Kindle Fire tablet sparked a price war when it launched at $199. In response, Barnes and Noble’s (BKS) Nook, which bills itself as “the reader’s tablet,” will drop from $139 to $99, and the Nook Color to drop from $249 to $199 or less,” Wilson says.
Shoppers will also find “no-name” 7-inch and 10-inch tablets for $60 and $90, respectively, Wilson says.
Amazon itself will likely sweeten the Kindle Fire deal with a short-term sale akin to its $50-off Kindle promotion from 2008, he says.
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The Tough Conversation You Must Have With Your Teen
Filed under: Apple, Family Money
My 11-year-old son recently told us he wants to empty his bank account to get a new iPad. Apple (AAPL) shareholders will no doubt love seeing that. Me? Not so much. I have the burden of knowing what happens when you don’t learn good savings habits early.
The experience forced me to admit a difficult truth. In some ways, my son is paying the price for my money mistakes.
At his age, I wasn’t just buying comic books — I was blowing money on everything I thought was interesting. And when I wasn’t spending, I was hoarding, earning exactly 0% interest on the money I collected from my paper route by storing hundreds of dollars in a tin can above the bookshelf.
To their credit, my parents got me a passbook savings account. They encouraged me to save, but they didn’t force the issue. Naturally, I didn’t force it, either: I treated all money as if it were disposable income. (At that age, it was.) Those habits came back to haunt me — and my family.
Paying Double-Digit Consequences
When I was a teen, the little cash I had with the bank earned so little interest that I would fail to learn the concept until I was paying it — at double-digit rates — thanks to thousands of dollars in credit card debt I accumulated during my years in college and graduate school. By the time I was 27, my wife and I were $45,000 in debt.
We dug out of that hole eventually, only to get ourselves into another when I switched careers. Living expenses outstripped self-employment income, all while our tax and health-care obligations soared to new highs.
Our situation has grown more manageable recently, but I’d be lying if I didn’t admit it’s a struggle. A good portion of the blame goes to my failure to adopt good money habits early in life.
Stopping the Cycle of Debt
When it came to our son, my wife and I devised what we thought was a simple plan: We told him he could buy the iPad, but that he could only use 50% of his savings. Also, moving forward we’d expect half his income from mowing lawns, allowance, aluminum can recycling, and the like to stay in the bank. Think of it as an emergency savings fund, we said.
We figured he’d able to save at least $100 month, growing into ever-greater sums as he got older and took on more expensive work. He’d have the means to get what he wanted — but first, he’d have to learn to delay gratification a little.
As we talked more about what we had in mind, I could see he felt punished. My good intentions had turned into your classic teenage tete-a-tete, with me spouting off platitudes about how someday he’d understand. All the stuff I hated hearing when I was his age.
The Sins of the Father; the Strengths of the Son
The problem, I later realized, is that my son is not like I was at the same age. This is a kid who spent the summer building a lawn-care business from nothing. He scrimped, saved, and routinely put money in the bank. By August, he’d saved up more than $800 — not enough to buy the MacBook Air he wanted, but enough to get us interested in helping. We had stored up enough affinity points with American Express that buying the computer through their shopping portal would cut at least $600 from the purchase price.
While he was away at camp, I put in the order. He arrived home on a Friday night to a new fully configured system. He couldn’t have been happier and still brings it to school each day. Teachers love how he uses it to stay organized and complete exercises online.
Looking back at our most recent conversation now, I realize that I was more than just a hypocrite. We were, in effect, scolding a kid who had already demonstrated an ability to save when he wanted to.
The difference — and why we balked — is that “signs” aren’t the same as habits, and given my history, we want to help him cultivate a savings habit.
A Better Kid Than We Deserve
Fortunately, this story has a happy ending. About 90 minutes after our first talk, our son relented. He showed up at the bedroom door with a wad of cash for deposit in the bank.
“That’s what you wanted, right?” he said, somewhat cynically. “No,” I said. “I don’t want you to be miserable. I just don’t want you to make the same mistakes I did.”
He shook his head OK, and that’s enough. In fact, it’s more than I can ask for. I was never so flexible at his age. I’m just grateful he’s willing to listen to his old, hypocritical, well-meaning dad.
Motley Fool contributor Tim Beyers owned shares of Apple at the time of publication. Check out Tim’s portfolio holdings and past columns, or connect with him on Google+ or Twitter, where he goes by @milehighfool. The Motley Fool owns shares of Apple. Motley Fool newsletter services have recommended buying shares of and creating a bull call spread position on Apple.
Prepare for Higher Heating Bills this Winter
Filed under: Energy, Family Money, Personal Finance
This winter’s weather is forecast to be a little milder than last year’s, but many Americans will get a cold chill when they open their heating bills. So set aside a little extra cash now: The Energy Information Administration projects that average household spending will increase 3% for natural gas, 7% for propane and 8% for heating oil from Oct. 1 through March 31, compared to last winter.
According to the EIA’s Short-Term Energy and Winter Fuels Outlook, those who heat their home with oil will see their bills go higher than they have in any previous winter. Folks in the Northeast, where 80% of households rely on heating oil, will bear the brunt of the price hike. The EIA projects residential heating oil prices will average $3.71 a gallon, 33 cents more than last year.
There’s a little bit of good news, though, for those whose heating systems run on electricity: They can expect to pay about 1% less this year, according to the EIA.
In fact, fuel prices are projected to show increases a bit sharper than our bills: Natural gas, up 4%; propane, up 7%; heating oil, up 10%. And electricity prices are expected to be 1% higher. But that slightly milder winter weather — predicted in the Northeast, South and Midwest — means you’ll use a bit less energy to keep the cold at bay. The West is the exception: That region is forecast to be 3% colder than last winter.
Current inventories of fuel oil and natural gas are above the recent historical average, which could temper bills if it turns out Old Man Winter is crueler than expected. Propane stocks are at relatively low levels, but there should be enough to meet potential demand increases or compensate for supply disruptions.
A Stinky Situation: The High Cost of Pricey Diapers
Filed under: Johnson & Johnson, Wal-Mart Stores, Costco, Amazon.com, Procter & Gamble, Family Money
Kimberly-Clark (KMB) and Procter & Gamble (PG) — America’s diaper duopolists — are making good on their threats to increase prices on diapers and baby wipes. They’re putting the pinch on parents, and making it hard to keep up with the rising cost of bringing up baby.
Talk about a hot-button topic: A column I wrote in April describing diaper makers’ plans to raise prices 3% to 7% got a huge response (as in 571 “likes” on Facebook). A large number of readers advised parents to do an end run around the price hike by ditching the disposables, and using cloth diapers instead.
Fewer Disposable Diapers
Now, personally, I think that’s a fine decision. (At the Smith homestead, our newest baby boy is also clad in cotton.) But according to a recent article in The Wall Street Journal, the price increase has panicked a lot of parents into making rash decisions.
According to the article, many parents are buying fewer diapers, changing them less often, and making up the difference in Desitin. (To the elation, I’m sure, of Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), which makes the diaper rash ointment.)
The Journal reports that diaper sales in America have been dropping steadily since at least August 2010, declining both in terms of units sold, and dollar-sales recorded on those sales. Data suggest that parents are “trading down” from premium brands such as Huggies and Pampers, as well as buying fewer diapers than they had in times past.
When you consider the strong parental instincts built into the human animal over eons of evolution, this clearly goes against everything parents would want to do in an ideal world. Further illustrating how entirely unprecedented this phenomenon is, Consumer Edge Research reports that it has happened exactly “never” before in American history. Or at least not during the time people have been tracking such things.
And lest you think there is some other explanation for diaper sales dropping — people having fewer kids, for example, or improvements in diaper quality permitting parents to use fewer diapers safely — consider this factoid: At the same time as diaper sales dipped, sales of diaper rash ointment spiked 8% higher.
The Law of Supply and Doo-Doo
There’s only one logical explanation for this phenomenon. People are still making babies. These babies are still making, well, deposits. But, out of simple economic necessity, parents are skimping on the cleanup.
Buying disposable diapers is a big part of the cost of bringing up baby. Procter & Gamble estimates the annual cost at $1,500 per child, per year, for parents who change diapers six times a day. If a parent can shave just one change off that daily figure, that’s a $250 savings. Make Baby wait just a little bit longer, and “save” two changes, and that’s $500 in your pocket.
Clearly, there’s an incentive to skip a change or two. And if it requires a parent to buy an extra tube or two of diaper rash ointment, well, that’s not going to make much of a dent in the $500 savings.
But is it worth it?
Rash Decisions
Let me say right out front: I’m not going to take sides or render judgments here. Every child is unique. Every situation is different. What works for me might not work for you, and vice versa. That said, if you are a parent facing financial hardship, and if cutting back on diaper changes is an option you’re considering — but one you’d rather avoid if you can — there are alternatives. For example:
You’ve heard what I have to say. What’s your solution to the high cost of pricey diapers? Tell us about it below.
Motley Fool contributor Rich Smith does not own shares of any companies named above. The Motley Fool owns shares of Johnson & Johnson, Wal-Mart, and Costco. Motley Fool newsletter services have recommended buying shares of Johnson & Johnson, Kimberly-Clark, Wal-Mart, Netflix, Costco, Procter & Gamble, and Amazon.com, as well as creating a bear put spread position in Netflix and diagonal call positions in Wal-Mart and J&J.
A 5-Step Plan for Dumping Your Bank
Filed under: Banking, Consumer Ally, Family Money
Over the weekend, we heard from more than 1,300 DailyFinance readers who said they’re considering switching banks in light of increased fees at some of the nation’s largest financial institutions. As consumers, we do an increasing amount of our personal banking with debit cards, and many of us have an elaborate system of direct deposits and automated payments in place. So if your savings margin is thin, switching banks requires some forethought and planning to ensure that you are not placing yourself at risk of an overdraft while you migrate your account. Richard Barrington, a personal finance expert for MoneyRates.com, shared his expertise with this five-step process on how to handle a bank swap.
1. Find the right bank or credit union for you. The financial institution that works best for your brother may not be the best one for you, so do your own research. It comes down to a matrix of three things for each customer, says Barrington: services, fees and locations.
Ask yourself: How do I use my bank? Do I use a debit card and ATMs? Do I prefer mobile banking and online transactions, or do I prefer paper checks and statements? Is international access important to me? If you’re moving a checking and savings account together, compare the interest rate earned on the savings account with the service charges on the checking account.
“You want to closely scrutinize the the fee structure,” he says. “Start with the monthly maintenance fees.” Take this example from Personal Finance for Dummies: If you plan to keep $2,000 in a savings account and earn 2% interest, you will earn $40 in interest over a year. Meanwhile, your checking account charges a monthly $9 fee (or $108 a year) for a low balance. Would that extra $2,000 bump your checking account balance above the requirement and cancel out the monthly fee? Calculate if you can avoid a higher fee in place of smaller earnings. (Note: This strategy only works if you can resist spending that extra money when it’s sitting in your checking account.)
Also, take a look at this primer on how to choose the right bank. Other online tools, including Google Adviser, MoneyRates.com and Bankrate.com, offer easy side-by-side comparisons of checking account services or find a credit union.
2. Open a new account, but leave the old one open. Create overlap between the accounts to make sure bills get paid while the new account starts to build a capital reserve. It may be useful to create an inventory or calendar of all the automatic credits and debits to the account to plan when to start moving the money. Barrington recommends leaving a statement cycle’s worth of overlap in the old account.
3. Shift your direct deposits to the new account. The next move is to redirect any direct deposits, like your paycheck, into your new account. This requires speaking to your employer’s payroll department — or whichever part of the organization handles your checks — and giving them your new account information. Wait a pay cycle before taking the next step.
4. Move all the automatic payments. Contact the organizations doing direct billing and advise them of your new bank account. This could also be an opportunity to reschedule payments so that they are evenly spread through out the month, rather than in the first half. Another strategy for credit-card holders is to use a dedicated credit card to pay monthly bills, then pay that sum in full from the checking account.
5. Write a letter to the old bank to close the account. Emptying your old account of all the money doesn’t close it automatically. Even worse, you could get maintenance fees on that zero-balance account, which could land you with overdraft fees. So, write an old-fashioned letter to your ex-bank specifying the date the account is to be officially shut down.
Catherine New is a staff writer with DailyFinance. You can reach her at catherine.new@huffingtonpost.com.
How to Save on Health Insurance, Part 1: Open Enrollment
Filed under: Family Money
Late September marks the beginning of “open enrollment,” the multi-week period when employees can select their employer-offered benefits, including health care plans. “It’s an opportunity to shop, so to speak, with regards to health care,” explains Yasmine Winkler, a senior vice president at UnitedHealthcare (UNH), one of the nation’s largest private health insurers.
While many Americans groan at the prospect of reviewing our benefits — so much paperwork, so many confusing terms — open enrollment is an important chance to ensure we’re getting the most bang for our health care buck. To that end, I spoke with Winkler and Michael Mahoney, vice president of consumer marketing at the insurance broker GoHealthInsurance.com, for tips on the most cost effective ways to select benefits.
In the first installment of this two-part series, the experts discuss how to save money on employer-offered benefits. In the second part, we’ll consider cost-saving strategies for people who don’t have employer-offered health insurance, and instead purchase individual plans.
1. Learn the Lingo
Health insurance terminology is vast and complicated, so find a website that can provide you straightforward definitions and explanations that you can refer back to as you work through your benefits. Good ones include Wisegeek.com, AARP and Bankrate.com,
“A lot of people take employer benefits for granted. They don’t dive in on the details, they just know they’ve always had insurance through work,” says Mahoney. “But it may be that you have benefits you don’t need. For example, if you’re not planning to have a kid soon, you may not need maternity coverage.” In instances where your employer’s plan offers benefits you don’t need, Mahoney suggests pricing an individual plan that only includes your needed benefits, and comparing the two.
However, the opposite is also true. If you know that you need certain benefits, your employer-offered plan may be the cheapest way to get them. “I have three kids,” says Winkler, “and everyone in our family wears glasses, so it would be foolish for me to pass on the vision benefit given the cost of contacts, glasses, annual eye exams.” According to Winkler, many employers offer additional benefits such as vision, dental, disability and critical illness coverage for relatively low-cost premiums.
3. Establish Your Priorities
Once you know what you need, you can determine how important various aspects of your coverage are to you. You might have a certain doctor you want to use, or a specific medical facility. Is that more important to you than saving money on your monthly premium? These are questions you have to answer as you select your plan. For example, most employers offer access to both an HMO or a PPO plan. “Traditionally the HMO is cheaper but has fewer options,” explains Mahoney. “They have a smaller list of providers that insurance will pay for, and they won’t cover the service if it’s out of network.” In contrast, a PPO costs more, but has a wider range of providers and will cover some portion of the cost of service even if the provider is out of network (say, for example, that you require medical assistance while traveling out of state).
4. Compare Treatment Costs
Like most everything else in the world, the cost of medical services varies by provider and insurer. This is due in part to the fact that different providers negotiate different rates with different providers, and in part because each provider determines its own prices. As a result, most insurance providers offer tools that allow you compare the costs of various physicians and facilities, and Winkler suggests consumers use them.
“Comparing gives you a better sense of how much is paid by you versus the health plan for various services,” she says. “They give you a sense for discounts that apply that health plan has negotiated, and helps you to understand average cost of care.”
5. Determine Your Risk Tolerance
“Insurance should be a financial protection product,” says Mahoney. “It should protect you when you have an accident or an illness.” To that end, Mahoney stresses the importance of thinking long and hard about your comfort with risk when you select your plan. “If you earn $25,000 a year and you have an accident and have a $15,000 deductible, that insurance really didn’t provide any protection. If your deductible is $2,000, that’s a lot more protection, but you have to pay more per month for that privilege.”
6. Take Advantage of Preventive Care
Basic preventative care — medical services intended to help you stay healthy — is covered 100% by health care providers, irrespective of whether or not you have a low- or high-deductible plan. That’s a great thing not only for your wallet but for your long-term health as preventative care can identify problems before they become serious. So, if you aren’t currently taking advantage of these free services, which usually include annual physicals, well-baby care, immunizations, mammograms and colonoscopies, get started.
7. Know the Bells and Whistles
These days, employers are offering all sorts of extras to help employees get, and stay, healthy, and most of them can fatten your wallet while helping your health. For example, many employers are now offering incentive-based plans that “give employees the opportunity – and maybe dependents – to earn dollars for healthy actions,” says Winkler. “Sometimes it’s credit towards the premium, credit towards the deductible, or maybe even a gift card. We have an employer, an international company, who offers employees the chance to win a car in a raffle when they do various healthy actions.” The activities can be as simple as taking a screening exam to educate yourself about “your numbers” — that is, your cholesterol, your blood pressure, your glucose level.
According to Winkler, another popular program is the Health Savings Account. Unlike a Flexible Spending Account, the funds of which must to be used up within the year and cannot be transferred between employers, the Health Savings Account is “like a personal bank account specifically related to health expenses,” explains Winkler. “Those dollars are yours, so if you leave, that money can go with you. It’s interest-bearing and tax-free. There are limits on it — for 2012, single coverage is capped at $3,100, and family coverage is capped at $6,250 for the tax year. But it can be deposited pre-tax from your paycheck, so there’s a lot of tax advantage to it and it’s very worthwhile.”
1 in 4 Spouses Is Willing to Cheat … Financially
Filed under: Family Money, Personal Finance
Your sweetheart may be keeping a secret from you, and it’s not that there’s some other guy or gal, or that you really do look fat in those pants. It’s the truth about their money.
According to new online poll from the National Foundation for Credit Counseling, 24% of respondents would not tell their spouse if they were experiencing financial difficulties.
Why would a spouse keep mum over something so significant? The NFCC data showed that 9% said they would keep silent because knowing about the issue would worry their partner, 7% said they’d keep it secret because telling would damage their relationship, while 8% said, with a certain circular logic, that they wouldn’t tell their spouse because their spouse had no idea about the debt.
The results surprised Gail Cunningham, spokeswoman for the NFCC — but perhaps not in the way you’d expect. “I was most surprised that more people did not hide debt from their spouses,” she told DailyFinance. Still, she finds the percentage of those who would hide a money problem troubling, she says.
The silver lining is the 76% who would share the information with their spouse. Two heads are better than one when it comes to solving financial issues.
Those who stay quiet though, should realize that silence is not golden and in fact can be a clue, that all is not well in marriage-land. “A reluctance to share financial information in a marriage could not lead to anything positive, and is possibly a sign of a deeper underlying problem in the marriage itself,” says Cunningham.
If you’re having trouble starting a tough money talk with your honey, the NFCC offers these tips:
- Don’t approach the subject in the heat of battle. Instead, set aside a time that is convenient and non-threatening for both parties.
- Do make it a casual conversation about a serious subject, respecting the fact that each person has valid opinions and concerns.
- Do be honest about your current financial situation. If things have gone south, continuing the same lifestyle that was possible before the change in income is simply unrealistic.
- Do be open to adjusting your lifestyle. If spending cutbacks or second jobs are necessary, resist whining. It’s likely that your situation will be temporary, and you could end up regretting the pity party you hosted.
- Don’t hide income or debt. This is known as financial infidelity. Instead, bring financial documents, including a recent credit report, pay stubs, bank statements, insurance policies, debts and investments to the table.
- Don’t point the finger of blame. That’s a real conversation stopper.
- Do probe to understand long-held financial attitudes, often present since childhood and ingrained by observing how parents addressed money issues.
- Do acknowledge that one may be a saver and one a spender, understanding that there are benefits to both mindsets and agreeing to learn from each other’s tendencies.
Financial stress is one of the main causes of divorce, warns Cunningham. “Taking action now could prevent a disaster later.”
